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BIS redefines inflation (again)
An interview with Hyun Song Shin, economic adviser and head of research at the BIS, reposted in the BIS web site reminds us of the strange and heterodox views that the BIS (and others) have about the...
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A 2016 recession would be different
If the US or the Eurozone entered a recession this year, a few macroeconomic variables would look very different relative to previous recessions.1. The Yield curve would be very steep. Unlike in any...
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ECB: I cannot do whatever it takes
The ECB just announced a further reduction in interest rates, extended its QE program by increasing the rate at which buys assets, beefed up the TLTRO program and extended its horizon. It all sounds...
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Central Banks need to get real (not nominal)
While the ECB and Bank of Japan are exploring negative interest rates, the US Federal Reserve is preparing us for a slow and cautious increase in short-term interest rates. Long-term rates remain at...
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World growth: mediocre or pathetic?
The recent disappointing performance of the world economy has been labelled as the "new mediocre" by Christine Lagarde, the "new reality" by Olivier Blanchard and the "new normal" by many others.How...
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How informative is the slope of the Yield Curve?
The yield curve is becoming flatter. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year government bond is now approaching 1%. The yield curve tends to get flatter when the economy reaches the end of an...
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The asymmetry of inflation or the ECB?
From this Financial Times article: In yesterday's press conference Mario Draghi was asked about the possibility of changing the ECB's inflation target. His answer is very revealing about the extreme...
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9, 8, 7, 6.7,... Speculating on China growth
The deceleration of China's GDP growth rate has been seen both as a natural transition towards more sustainable growth rates and a sign that the Chinese model of growth is coming to an end. How does...
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Experts, facts and media
Jean Pisani-Ferry has written a very interesting post about the need for trusted experts in a democracy. The post addresses the criticisms that economic experts have received as a result of the Brexit...
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You can lower interest rates but can you raise inflation?
Last week the Bank of England lowered their interest rates. This combined with previous moves by the ECB and the Bank of Japan and the reduced probability that the US Federal Reserve will increase...
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The stock market looks cheap
How expensive is the US stock market? Have the strong gains since the financial crisis of 2008 built yet another massive bubble that will require a correction? Some investors fear that recent stock...
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The OECD procyclical revision of fiscal policy multipliers
The OECD just published its November 2016 Global Economic Outlook. Their projections suggest an acceleration of global growth rates in particular in countries with plans for a fiscal expansion. In the...
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Make the Risk Premium small again
In one my previous posts I looked at the stock market valuations in the US to conclude that they were in line with recent historical data. In fact the stock market looked cheap relative to most years...
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Moving Blog Location
New Year, new address and look for my blog. The new address is http://antoniofatas.blogspot.comIf you have been subscribing to this blog, you can change your subscription by going to this new...
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